Interval Probabilities In Lpm For Risk Assessment In Socio-Economic Systems
Vasily Karasev · The European Proceedings of Social & Behavioural Sciences · 2021
In the article the disadvantages of the logical and probabilistic method (LPM) for assessment risk and safety in socio-economic systems are described, namely, the assumption of the independence of events, "conjunction error", the subjectivity of experts in event tree construction. Proceed from properties of socio-economic systems, the author proposes to use interval estimations for probabilities of initiating events instead of point ones. Interval estimations allow avoid significant limitations in applying LPM for risk management in socio-economic systems which are caused by subjectivity of experts and “conjunction error”. The semantics of the formula for calculation the probabilities of events is determined by the rules of addition and multiplication of probabilities, and operations are performed according to the rules of interval mathematics. Examples of calculations of interval probabilities of events are given using numerical examples. The scientific foundation of the interval estimations of probabilities based on the axiomatics of the probability space and the space of events by A.N. Kolmogorov and sigma-algebra by E. Borel are stated.