Evaluating a Bayesian Network to Predict Customer Satisfaction in Scrum Software Development Projects: An Empirical Study with One Company
Mirko Perkusich · Proceedings/Proceedings of the ... International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering · 2021
Using knowledge-based systems for helping agile teams to improve their performance is not a fact in the industry.In previous work, we have presented Kaizen, a knowledge-based Bayesian network for assisting Scrum teams in diagnosing their value stream in light of the predicted Customer Satisfaction and, consequently, improve their performance.This study assesses Kaizen's accuracy to predict Customer Satisfaction using realworld data.We adopted Kaizen for one software development company and collected data from 18 projects using an online questionnaire.We collected two types of data: inputs for Kaizen and the expected Customer satisfaction.We used the first type of collected data as inputs for Kaizen to calculate the predicted Customer satisfaction.Then, we assessed Kaizen's accuracy by comparing the predicted (i.e., calculated) and expected (i.e., collected) Customer satisfaction using face value and the average Brier score.Considering the face value, Kaizen predicted Customer Satisfaction correctly for 14 out of the 18 projects.The average Brier Score was 0.16.The model predicts, with satisfactory accuracy, the Customer Satisfaction and systemizes the process for Scrum teams to self-diagnose, enabling for causal analysis and supporting their continuous improvement.