A Study on the Determinants of Japanese FDI into Korea : A Markov Switching Dynamic Model Approach
Jong‐Il Choe, Mok Sakong · Journal of International Trade · 2021
Purpose : This study is to find out which factors affect the Japanese firms’ foreign direct investment(FDI) into Korea by the ‘contraction state’ and the ‘expantion state’. Research design, data, methodology : Using the quarterly data of Japanese FDI from 1980: Q1 to 2019: Q4, we analyzed the relationship between Japanese FDI into Korea and potential explanatory variables via the Probit Model and Markov Switching Model estimation. Results : The results of Markov-switching regression show that during the contraction periods (‘State’ 0), unit labor costs have a negative effect on the inflow of Japanese FDI. In contrast, during the expansion period(‘State 1’), the economic growth of Korea, Japan, and the United States have a positive effect. In addition, the relationship between the bilateral conflict periods of Korea and Japan and the contraction periods of Japanese FDI is ambigous in the long-run. Conclusions : Recent slowdown in economic growth in Korea and the increase in labor costs seem to have caused a contraction in Japanese FDI into Korea. Therefore, policy to reduce the production costs and to enhance the profitability of the investors are necessary to increase Japanese FDI into Korea.