Operational Code Beliefs and Threat Perceptions by US Presidents
Collin J. Kazazis · 2021
The concept of threat perception has a long history in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have considered only situational factors. By utilizing the operational code, this study creates a new threat-perception variable based on cognitive constructs. Using a sample of US presidents, this new variable is tested in two different ways. The first examines three psychological characteristics (need for power, in-group bias, and distrust) from Leadership Trait Analysis that are thought to influence the level of threat perception in a leader. The second examines threat perception as an explanatory variable for the use of force alongside three other important control variables (economic violence, presidential popularity, and US power). For the use of force variable, Meernik&s;s Use of Force dataset is utilized with each case representing an opportunity to use force. The psychological data are derived from the verbal material of US presidents using at-a-distance methods found in the literature. This study concludes by considering possibilities for future research with this new variable, both in the scope of this present research and in other fields.