Time Series Analysis for Understanding Local Policy Impact of COVID-19 Cases in East Java
Diana Purwitasari, Agus Budi Raharjo, Izzat Aulia Akbar, Faizal Johan Atletiko, Wiwik Anggraeni, Muhammad Ardian, Niko Azhari Hidayat, Hendro Suprayogi, Muhammad Amin · 2020
Daily new cases of COVID-19 as a series of data points ordered in time is one representation of time series data. Our works expect to understand the data characteristics that is related to existing government policies. This paper aims to highlight the impact report and analyses of some COVID-19 policies in East Java province districts. The study is focused on the policy execution before and during the new normal situation of COVID-19 using time series data of new cases as possible and easily observable results. Aside from time series analysis, some visual analysis is performed as well. The experiments focused on some questions related to the policy effectiveness: finding patterns of daily new cases to instigate the need for other local policies and understanding any precedence on occurred cases for nearby districts. Although the second question is not confirmable, the first question verifies more tightened social distancing is still necessary for the new normal.