Duped and Deceived
Gary A. Smith, Jay Cordes · Oxford University Press eBooks · 2020
We are hard-wired to notice, seek, and be influenced by patterns. Sometimes these turn out to be useful; other times, they dupe and deceive us. Our affinity for patterns is powerful—no doubt, aided and abetted by selective recall and confirmation bias. We remember when a pattern persists and confirms our belief, and we forget or explain away times when it doesn’t. We are still under the spell of silly superstitions and captivated by numerical coincidences. We still think that some numbers are lucky, and others unlucky, even though the numbers deemed lucky and unlucky vary from culture to culture. We still think some numbers are special and notice them all around us. We still turn numerical patterns into laws and extrapolate flukes into confident predictions. The allure of patterns is hard to ignore. The temptation is hard to resist.