Investigations of Probabilistic Inference
Robert M. Hamm · 1990
Abstract : Reports first-year results of project, The Use of Protocol Analysis and Process Tracing Techniques to Investigate Probabilistic Inference. Research indicates that the most recently presented information is given more attention in situations that require the integration of information about expectancies with uncertain information about what is happening at present. In addition, subjects have difficulty distinguishing two types of conditional probability information, the reliability p(evidence/hypothesis) and the probability that the hypothesis is true if the evidence is observed, p(hypothesis/evidence).