ON the HALF-LOGISTIC MODEL with "pOLYNOMIAL VARIABLE TRANSFER". APPLICATION to APPROXIMATE the SPECIFIC "dATA CORONA VIRUS
Nikolay V. Kyurkchiev, Anton I. Iliev, Asen Rahnev · International Journal of Differential Equations and Applications · 2020
Verhulst model [1] makes an extensive use of the logistic sigmoidal func-tion S(t) = a 1+ea'kt Studying Canteloup growth, Pearl et al [2]-[3] empirically found that one should generalized the logistic map in order to reproduce better the data The cumulative sigmoid can be written as x(t) = 1a'ea'kt 1+ea'kt We consider a new class of growth curves, generated by reaction networks, based on the insertion of cor-recting amendments of polynomial-type: M(t) = 1a'ea'F(t) 1+ea'F(t) where F(t) = Pn i=0 aiti We will call this family the Half-Logistic curve of growth with polynomial vari- A ble transfer (HLCGPVT) The new coronavirus [28], SARS-CoV-2, is the reason for a new disease, Covid-19 Below we look at some comparisons between the Verhulst model and the new model (HLCGPVT), as well as the ability to approximate specific population dynamics data, including Data Virus Illustrating our results the following datasets are fitted [27] using CAS MATHEMATICA: Corona virus-Total Deaths and Corona virus-Total Deaths-up to: 15 03 2020, 21 03 2020, 25 03 2020;Total Coronavirus Cases in China (22 01 2020-16 03 2020);Total Coronavirus Cases in Bulgarian (8 03 2020-28 03 2020) AMS Subject Classification: 41A46 © 2020 Academic Publications Ltd All rights reserved