Inductive and Abductive Arguments
Elliott R. Sober · 2020
A deductively valid argument that has true premises can’t have a false conclusion; but it is also a property of such arguments that the conclusion can’t say anything that wasn’t already contained in the premises. This chapter discusses the difference between two sorts of nondeductive inference—inductive and abductive. Inductive inference involves taking a description of some sample and extending that description to items outside the sample. The Surprise Principle explains why the success of “safe” predictions provides less compelling evidence than the success of “risky” predictions. Many people thought that the astrologer Jeanne Dixon had special powers to predict the future.