Probabilistic model of individual risk considering fire dynamics, controls and failure probabilities of Fire Protection Systems
E. Nachtigall · 2013
The paper presents a review of the scientific literature on computer modeling of sociotechnical systems. The aim is to briefly review and discuss modeling approaches that are suitable for the simulation of socio-technical systems, specifically in the context of risk and vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures. It is found that seven main socio-technical modeling approaches can be discerned: Network theoretical, Bayesian belief network, Petri-net, System dynamics, Agent based, SHELL and Hybrid modeling approaches. It is concluded that these approaches, although potentially suitable, have not been used to simultaneously simulate a) socio-technical factors as a cause of critical infrastructure disruptions b) critical infrastructure restoration processes and c) societal consequences from critical infrastructure disruptions. It is discussed in what way the identified modeling approaches could be of use for simultaneously modeling these different aspects of critical infrastructure disruption events.