A Method of Evaluating Network System Risk Events Probability based on Attack Tree
Zheng Lian-qing · Fire Control and Command Control · 2010
To improve the estimation veracity of the network security risk probability,the attack tree was used to model system under the network security events,and improved on the definition of attack tree nodes. This paper proposed a quantitative calculating method of risk events and an analysis method of attack route. Finally,the Bayesian networks theory was adopted to quantify the probability value of the leaf node. The case study demonstrated this method was scientific and effective,it can provide help for lay a security policy effectively.