Fire Risk Factor Analysis of High-Rise Building Based on Bayesian Network and Fuzzy Fault Tree
Penghui Dong, Sanming Wang · 2019
The factors of fire accident in high-rise buildings are complex and unpredictable, which are greatly affected by personnel operation and environment. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the exact probability of accidents statistically. Based on the influencing factors of fire accidents in high-rise buildings, a fuzzy fault tree was established. The advantage of bayesian network in dealing with uncertain problems was used to model and analyze, and the fuzzy problems in reality can be solved well. In the bayesian network model analysis, the fire accident of high-rise apartment building on yuyao road in Shanghai was taken as an example to verify. The prior probability came from Statistics of fire accidents of high-rise buildings over the past years and fuzzy probability given by experts. It was fuzzified by using the fuzzy mathematics principle, and the posterior probability obtained by bayesian tool was combined to understand the relatively important factors affecting high-rise building fire, so as to provide reference for fire risk factor evaluation of high-rise building.