A clustering model for time-series forecasting
Rebeka Čorić, Mateja Đumić, Slobodan Jelić · 2019
In this paper we consider a novel Integer programming approach for the cluster-based model used for time-series forecasting. There are several approaches in literature that aim to find a set of patterns which represent similar situations in the time series. In order to predict target variable, different types of fitting methods can be applied to set of data that belongs to the same pattern. We propose method that uses clustering of patterns and prediction of target value as the mean of values in the same cluster, in order to minimize total squared deviation between predicted and real values of target variable. We also propose a heuristic method that achieves good solution in practice. Our approach is applied to short-term prediction of airborne pollen concentrations. We give experimental results about comparison of our method to some common approaches.