Crime Prediction using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Algorithm
Elvis P. Patulin · International Journal of Advanced Trends in Computer Science and Engineering · 2019
Data mining (DM), as coined with the term Knowledge Discovery in databases, used diverse approaches of DM analysis such as clustering, prediction or forecasting and many more.These are instrumental in extracting important information from the database.Along with DM analytics, big data and predictive analysis are relatively new concepts in criminology.This paper analyzes the index and non-index crimes in the province of Surigao del Norte, Philippines using the crime dataset from years 2013-2017.The prediction of its occurrence for the year 2018-2022 was also provided using ARIMA(1,0,7) model.Results showed that physical injury, homicide, violation of special laws, car napping, reckless imprudence resulting to physical injury, and other non-index crimes has 26%, 25%, 25%, 24%, 24%, and 23% forecasted increase for the year 2018-2022 with the highest occurrence in years 2018, 2018, 2020, 2018, 2020, and 2020 respectively.