Fuzzy Logic and Exponential Smoothing for Mapping Implementation of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Surabaya
Mohammad Robihul Mufid, Nilla Rachmi Kusuma Saginta Putri, Arna Fariza, Mu'arifin Mu'arifin · 2018
One of the infectious diseases found in Surabaya is Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). Although prevention has been carried out by the government, there are still obstacles to determine the right handling because there is no map visualization for its distribution and the condition of the data itself is still not accurate. This study aims to provide information about dissemination analysis in the form of map visualization and forecasting that can help the government to provide appropriate handling of dengue cases was conducted. Fuzzy methods were applied in the Web Geographic Information System and Exponential Smoothing methods for forecasting. The data in this system is the number of patients with DHF, the amount of population density, the amount of rainfall, and the number of public facilities taken from 2012 to 2017. The results show that almost all sub-districts in Surabaya are DHF endemic areas, by being differentiated into these areas which are safe, alert, vulnerable, or need handling from the dangers of dengue fever. While the forecasting results using the exponential smoothing method, provide an accuracy of 55%.