Application of Catastrophe Theory in Gas Load Forecasting
Hongli Chen, Peng Huang, Qiang Li · 2018
Aiming at the prediction of gas load (city gas daily load), an application of catastrophe theory in gas load forecasting is put forward. Based on the catastrophe theory, we take gas load as state variables, the daily temperature, city population as control variables, a cusp catastrophe model of gas load forecasting is established. The model parameters are identified by using the least squares method based on the combination of computer technology. Then by the potential function, mutation manifold and odd point sets, the bifurcation set is obtained and the control parameters of mutation region are obtained. Then we carry on the forecast of gas load error analysis. The experimental results show that the method according to the temperature and population data can predict the gas load well.