Forecasting the Amount of the Lung Diseases by the Method of ARIMA-ARCH
B K Mbau · IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering · 2018
This paper aimed at forecasting the number of cases of Tuberculosis in XYZ hospital. The lungs are one of the vital organs in the human body. This research method using ARIMA-ARCH model. Test results into the influential heteroskedastisitas forecasting the number of cases of tuberculosis, where when the model initially has no effect ARCH but still continued into the ARIMAARCH value produces a MAPE of better evidenced by the model of ARIMA (0, 1, 3) the ARCH (1) have a better accuracy level, where has a value of MAPE 2.09 % whereas the model ARIMA (0, 1, 3) has a value of MAPE 2.31%.