Analysis and Risk Prediction of Subway Train Derailment Accident
Yadong Meng · 2018
S90 train derailment accident occupies a relatively high proportion of Subway operating safety accident statistics, it is of great significance to analyze and to predict the risk. On the basis of HMEM (Human, Machine, Environment and Management) safety engineering theory, all sort of factors of Subway train derailment accident were analyzed. Comprehensive utilization of Subway train derailment accident history data, expert knowledge, safety management experience of Subway operating companies, established the STDARP (Subway Train Derailment Accident Risk Prediction) model. For the application of the model, according to Bayesian network theory, the risk predication Bayesian network was established, proceeded sensitivity analysis, Finally, verified the model by an actual case.