Causal Inference over Longitudinal Data to Support Expectation Exploration
Emre Kıcıman · 2018
Many people use web search engines for expectation exploration: exploring what might happen if they take some action, or how they should expect some situation to evolve. While search engines have databases to provide structured answers to many questions, there is no database about the outcomes of actions or the evolution of situations. The information we need to answer such questions, however, is already being recorded. On social media, for example, hundreds of millions of people are publicly reporting about the actions they take and the situations they are in, and an increasing range of events and activities experienced in their lives over time. In this presentation, we show how causal inference methods can be applied to such individual-level, longitudinal records to generate answers for expectation exploration queries.