Rethinking IT project financial risk prediction using reference class forecasting technique
Abir El Yamami, Souad Ahriz, Khalifa Mansouri, Mohammed Qbadou, El Hossein Illoussamen · 2018 4th International Conference on Optimization and Applications (ICOA) · 2018
Forecasting financial risks is one of the most difficult tasks in risk prediction; IT project risk management practitioners stress the need to take into consideration the organizational factors of IT project success. In this context, this paper introduced the concept of Reference Class Forecasting to the problem of IT project financial risks estimates. It was designed to develop a conceptual approach to optimize financial risks prediction, at the organizational level, during IT project implementation. This approach is formally developed according to design science research approach and it addresses an area of relevance to both practitioners and academics and suggests solutions that can help IT risk managers to provide more accurate risk assessment plans.