Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Belief Networks for Risk Analysis
Arsalan Ahmed, S. Savci, Berman Kayis, Y. B. Khoo, R. Budiarianto Suryo Kusumo, Mingwei Zhou, Au · 2005
Concurrent engineering or integrated product development is complex and challenging to manage while aiming reduction of the number of design iterations between different steps of the new product development (NPD) process. The efficiency and reliability of this concurrent engineering approach can be enhanced through risk management principles applied to project management. This paper presents a framework developed for an intelligent risk management system based on the Australia / New Zealand Risk Management Standard (AS/NZS 4360) ane conceptualisation of a risk management tool consisting of several modules addressing establishment of the risk assessment context, risk identification, risk assessment, risk evaluation and risk mitigation planning. These modules are linked to each other through a database providing risk analysis through quantitative and multi-criteria decision tools using the Analytical Hiererchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN). This paper presents the conceptualisation of AHP and BBN based decision support modules in the Intelligent Risk Mapping and Assessment Systems (IRMASTM) for risk analysis. 1.