Method for Path Guidance Based on Risk Analysis under Incomplete Dynamic Information
云辉 肖 · Open Journal of Transportation Technologies · 2018
为了从量和质两个角度对道路行驶路径进行选择，提出一种基于风险估计的路径诱导方法。针对现有道路的非完全动态信息条件，将道路的饱和度超标风险作为一个模糊事件，利用模糊事件概率理论，提出了道路拥挤的模糊随机风险率计算模型。通过引入熵来评价隶属函数特征值取值的可靠程度，定量描述了隶属函数特征值与风险率的关系，进而计算出风险率。最后通过一个萧山机场快速路改造实例验证了基于风险估计的路径诱导方法，计算结果证明了该方法能从量和质两个角度对道路行驶路径进行评价。 In order to choose the path from the quantity and quality aspects, method for path guidance based on risk analysis was brought forward. With considering the incomplete dynamic information condition, the risk of road saturation exceeding the standard was regarded as a fuzzy event. According to the fuzzy probabilistic theory, the fuzzy probabilistic model was brought forward. The concept of entropy of fuzzy event is introduced to assess the credibility of the selected characteristic value of the membership function, and then the relationship between characteristic value of membership function and risk rate is described quantitatively. Thus, the risk rate can be determined. At last, the method was validated through an example. The result shows the method can evaluate the path from the quantity and quality aspects.