Sensitivities of the Gail, NSABP and NCI Risk Analysis Models for Turkish Women for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment
Elif Altunbaş Ateş, Betül Bozkurt, Ragıp Çam · Ankara Medical Journal · 2018
Objectives: The best protection against breast cancer, the most common cancer in women, is early detection. The most commonly used risk assessment tools, identifying women at high risk of developing breast cancer, are the Gail model and its modifications, National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) models. We aimed to evaluate the sensitivities of these models. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 1333 patients who had been diagnosed with breast cancer at Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital and Ankara University Medical Faculty between April 1998 and December 2014. Results: The Gail model identified 32.52% of the patients as being at high risk. The model NSABP identified 15.48% as being at high risk and the NCI identified 19.39 %. Conclusion: Comparison of the sensitivity of three models revealed Gail model as the most sensitive one, but it only identified 32.52 % of the patients who developed breast cancer as being at high risk. There was a correlation between the results, but results were significantly different. We conclude that these three models are not applicable to Turkish women due to their low sensitivity and poor concordance. There is a need to develop a new risk assessment model with the addition of different parameters for Turkish women.