DEVS modeling and simulation based on Markov Decision Process of financial leverage effect in the EU development programs
Emmanuel Barbieri, Laurent Capocchi, Jean-François Santucci · 2017
The evaluation of development programs has become essential to verify their success. Indeed, it is necessary to develop prediction tools of the still-planned programs, in a special phase called ex-ante phase, to simulate the effects of fictitious programs or changes in the existing program structure in order to predict the level of leverage of a program from its design stage as well as during the project. The proposed paper consists of the definition of a DEVS-based Markov Decision Process model which, after simulation, may constitute an ex-ante evaluation of a development program. First promising simulation results are presented and seems to confirm the right way of the proposed approach.