Prediction of Pediatric HIV/AIDS Survival in Nigeria Using Naïve Bayes' Approach
Peter Adebayo Idowu, Theophlus A. Aladekomo, Olutola Agbelusi, Olumuyiwa Bamidele Alaba, Jeremiah A. Balogun · International journal of child health and human development · 2017
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)IntroductionEpidemic diseases have highly destructive effects around the world and these diseases have affected both developed and developing nations. Disease epidemics are common in developing nations especially in Sub Saharan Africa in which Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immunodeficiency Disease Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is the most serious of all (1). HIV is one of the world's most serious health and development challenges (2). It is a type of virus called a retrovirus which infects humans when it comes in contact with tissues such as those that line the vagina, anal area, mouth, eyes or through a break in the skin (3), while Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is the advanced stage of the retroviral infection that swept through sub-Saharan Africa with venom (4-5).Globally, HIV continues to be a very serious health issue facing the world (6). About 34 million (31.4 million-35.9 million) people were living with HIV at the end of 2011 and an estimated0.8% of adults aged 15-49 years worldwide are living with the virus, although the burden of the epidemic continues to vary considerably between countries and regions (6). In Sub-Saharan Africa, roughly 25 million people were living with HIV in 2012, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the global total. The epidemic has had widespread social and economic consequences, not only in the health sector but also in education, industry and the wider economy (8-9). The epidemic has had a heavy impact on education, school attendance drops as children become sick or return home to look after affected family members (10). Moreover, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the most severely affected, with nearly 1 in every 20 adults (4.9%) living with HIV; accounting for 69% of the people living with HIV worldwide. Although, the regional prevalence of HIV infection is nearly 25 times higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in Asia, almost 5 million people are living with HIV in South, South-East and East Asia combined and sub-Saharan Africa region is the most heavily affected region follow by the Caribbean, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where 1.0% of adults were living with HIV as of 2011 (2).Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa with an estimated population of over 160 million people. Government reports claim that over 300,000 Nigerians die yearly of complications arising from AIDS. Nigeria has the highest HIV populations in Africa with 5.7 million infected people. It is estimated that over 200,000 people die yearly in Nigeria as a result of HIV/AIDS (11). At present, there is no cure for HIV but it is being managed with antiretroviral drugs (ARV). There is optimal combination of ARV which is known as Highly Active Antiretroviral drug (HAART) (12-13). Antiretroviral therapy is the mechanism of treating retroviral infections with drugs. The drugs do not kill the virus but they slow down the growth of the virus (6). HAART refers to the use of combinations of various antiretroviral drugs with different mechanisms of action to treat HIV.The epidemic of HIV/AIDS affects two classes of people: the paediatric and the non-paediatric individual. The non-paediatric patients are patients above 15 years of age while the paediatric patients who form the main target of this research are patients whose age is less than 15 years (14). There are four distinct stages of HIV infection which includes: the primary HIV infection stage or clinical stage 1 which involves asymptomatic and acute retroviral syndrome; clinically asymptomatic stage or clinical stage 2 which involves moderate and unexplained weight loss (