Flexible traffic management based on bounded rationality and indifference bands
Jacob Dirk Vreeswijk, Eric C. van Berkum, Bart van Arem · University of Twente Research Information · 2011
Constrained cognitive abilities cause imperfections in traveler’s choice behavior which are largely systematic and predictable. This paper introduces the concept ‘regulation flexibility’ to build upon this knowledge, taking it as an advantage to increase the effectiveness of traffic network management rather than a threat. It assumes that within set boundaries, traffic management measures are perceived as acceptable by travelers, enabling road operators to have certain control over behavioral response and undesirable consequences. A conceptual framework for regulation flexibility is provided, following the three stages of the decision-making process: observation, evaluation and choice. Emphasis is on the processes underlying choice and behavior, to explain deviations from rational behavior, rather than the outcome itself. The notion of indifference bands reported in literature is taken as a starting point and applied in a broader context to specify regulation flexibility in all three stages. This paper debates that: (1) travelers’ ability to detect changes in attributes of their trip or the performance of a traffic system is limited, (2) travelers make mistakes in estimating the value of changes, and (3) great diversity in applied choice patterns cannot be explained by observation and evaluation factors alone. In each of the three decision-making stages, multiple aspects are of influence to the perception of travelers and point toward the need for more empirical research. Future research will focus on travelers’ ability to observe changes in attributes of their trip or the performance of a traffic system.