Mistrial by Likelihood Ratio: Bayesian Analysis Meets the F-Word
Paul S. Bergman, Albert J. Moore · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · 1991
Please understand that we are neither reverend nor rabbi; we are plain Professors of Law at the UCLA School of Law.But in preparing to do battle with the followers of the Reverend Thomas Bayes, we were reminded of Clarence Darrow, who in the 1920s defended the teacher charged with unlawfully teaching the theory of evolution in the famous Scopes trial in Tennessee.Scopes v. State, 154 Tenn.105, 289 S.W. 363 (1927).William Jennings Bryan, who acted as one of the prosecutors in the case, was addressed during the trial by the honorary title of "Colonel."Darrow, seeking equal stature before the jury, insisted on and was given the honorary title of "Colonel" for the duration of the trial.Hence, our good-natured use of the religious titles "Rabbi" and "the Reverend" is meant to recall this colorful bit of legal history, and to put both ourselves and our readers in the spirit of the Reverend Bayes, who can be largely held to account for this conference.Without in any way suggesting that they agree with our thesis, we wish to thank Professors Ken Graham, Rick Sander, Judea Pearl, and David Kaye, from whose comments we have greatly benefitted.We also are grateful to the UCLA Summer Stipend Program, which helped fund our research; we hope it was money well spent. I Bayes, An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, in 53 PHILO-