Simulation-based Completeness Analysis and Adaption of Fault Trees
Volker Gollücke, Jan Pinkowski, Christoph Läsche, Sebastian Gerwinn, Axel Hahn · 2014
Abstract—Safety analysis is a common and important task for any operational planning of missions such as, in a maritime context, the construction and maintenance of offshore wind farms. Identifying potential risks that might occur during the planned operation or a sequence of operations is the main task of an associated hazard and risk analysis. This paper introduces an approach to automatically adapt fault trees based on a simulation of a model of the operation in question enhanced by a formal description of hazards. Formalizing the corresponding hazard specifications allows us to generate observers which in turn iden-tify failures and hazards during a simulation of the system. Such detection of critical situation can interact with the simulation via a specialized controller application for the simulation thereby triggering the completion of an existing fault tree. As potentially stochastic models of the environment are considered as well, this simulation approach naturally provides guarantees of the result in terms of statistical confidence statements. The feasibility of this approach is exemplified on an offshore lifting operation.