Sequential estimation based on conditional cost
George V. Moustakides, Tony Yaacoub, Yajun Mei · 2017
We consider the problem of parameter estimation under a sequential framework. Specifically we assume that an i.i.d. random process is observed sequentially with its common pdf having a random parameter that must be estimated. We are interested in designing a stopping time that will decide when is the best moment to stop sampling the process and an estimator that will use the acquired samples in order to provide the desired estimate. We follow a semi-Bayesian approach where we assign cost to the pair (estimate, true parameter) and our goal is to minimize the average sample size guaranteeing at the same time an average cost below some prescribed level. For our analysis we adopt a conditional average cost which leads to a considerable simplification in the sequential estimation problem, otherwise known to be analytically intractable. We apply our results to a number of examples and compare our method with the optimum fixed sample size but also with existing sequential schemes.