What Drives the Growth of YouTube? Measuring and Analyzing the Evolution Dynamics of YouTube Video Uploads
Golshan Golnari, Yanhua Li, Zhi-Li Zhang · 2014
We make the first attempt to study the evolution dynamics of YouTube, from the perspectives of uploaded videos and uploaders. Using unbiasedly estimated video statistics, we study how YouTube grows over time, from the inception of YouTube in 2005 up until now. We show that the growth of YouTube videos undergoes several phases: i) an initial growth phase best fitted by a quadratic curve, ii) an exponential growth phase that starts circa late 2009, interrupted by iii) a sudden drop that lasts a few months in early 2012, and followed by iv) a (resumed) rapid growth phase again. To further understand what drives the growth in YouTube uploaded videos, we examine several factors/questions related to the growth of YouTube videos, and develop models to predict the growth in the video uploads. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first of its kind in studying the evolution dynamics of YouTube; it may shed useful light on its future growth.