REVIEWS OF BOOKS ON FO RECASTING Principles of Forecasting Web Site
Daniel J. Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, J. Scott Armstrong · 1984
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses: (i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings (iii) what is new (iv) how the book is organized (v) advice on using the book, and (vi) who should read the book. It ends with a note on the use of judgmental research. The Scope of the Readings Assume the following problem: you must select a set of k items from a population of N, where the boundaries of N are ill-defined and no census of the population is available. How should you proceed? According to the research in Judgment Under Uncertainty (JUU), decision-makers are prone to numerous errors in such tasks. More specifically, the problem Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky (KST) faced was to select, from