DECISION MAKING BASED ON EXPERT ASSESSMENTS: USE OF BELIEF NETWORKS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT UNCERTAINTY, BIAS, AND WEAK SIGNALS
Marc Bouissou, Nguyễn Thanh Thủy · 2002
Summary Decision making based on assessments made by a large number of experts of many different technical domains is a very difficult task. This paper presents a practical approach to assist decision makers to decide whether a complex critical system (e.g., a safety critical computerbased system) can be put into operational service. This approach can provide a synthetic view, in the form of a probability distribution for a global utility function. It also helps the decision maker to pinpoint the most critical issues, and gives the possibility to focus and zoom on these issues. The models supporting the approach can be used to evaluate the effects of various improvement actions, in order to identify the most appropriate and effective ones.