Research on occurrence frequency of IT projects risk based on fuzzy influence diagram
Ying Qu, Tie-Zhu Yang · 2016
Influence diagram is a relatively straightforward and easy method to make risk analysis and evaluation. To a certain extent, fuzzy mathematics method is introduced into parametric modeling of risk influence diagram to solve difficult problems that the probabilities of basic events are not easy to get. The work describes the relationship of different influence factors in the risk management process of IT projects through establishing the topology structure of risk factors. It applies fuzzy influence diagram to make the predictive occurrence probability of the value node more accurate, as shown in an example. The improvement of predictive accuracy of occurrence probability of value node provides an effective basis for IT project risk management.