Knowledge, Belief, Probabilities, Updates, Model Checking
van Jan Eijck · 2014
The talk will present epistemic probability models with probabilistic updates, and will discuss an implementation that allows model checking the results of updates in a multi-agent setting. I will also try to convey the attractions of functional programming. How are Logic and Probability Theory Related? • Logic = Reasoning about Certainty • Probability Theory = Reasoning about Uncertainty • Wikipedia defines Epistemic or Bayesian probability as “... an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses, i.e., the propositions whose truth or falsity is uncertain.” • But logic has something to say, too, about reasoning under uncertainty: epistemic logic, doxastic logic, default logic, . . . • How are all these enterprises related? The Usefulness of Probability Theory