Belief, Probabilities, Updates, and Model Checking
van Jan Eijck · 2014
The talk will present epistemic probability models with probabilistic updates, and will discuss an implementation that allows model checking the results of updates in a multi-agent setting. I will do my best to connect this to the themes of the workshop. Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. • Can I safely cross this road? Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. • Can I safely cross this road? • Should I bring my umbrella? Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. • Can I safely cross this road? • Should I bring my umbrella? • Can I trust this bank? Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. • Can I safely cross this road? • Should I bring my umbrella? • Can I trust this bank? • Is it safe to order from this cheap website? Belief and Probability In the perspective of epistemic logic, our body of knowledge consists of true facts that we are certain about. But in the practice of everyday life and in the pursuit of science such absolute certainty is very rare. • Can I safely cross this road? • Should I bring my umbrella? • Can I trust this bank? • Is it safe to order from this cheap website? • Can I trust this estimate of the mass of the planet Saturn?1 1Pierre Simon Laplace made a famous calculation of this, including an estimate for the uncertainty, using the astronomical data that were available to him in the early Nineteenth Century.