A combined Bayesian Belief Network analysis and systems architectural approach to analyse an amphibious C4ISR system
Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation · 2013
As an amphibious operation encompasses the land, air and sea domains, it is a Joint Operation, involving all three services. More than any other military operation, the success of an amphibious mission requires the extensive synchronisation of both physical and informational assets across the joint force. Vital to this synchronisation is an effective and reliable Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) system. Consequently, in supporting the development of the ADF's amphibious capability, the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) was involved in modelling the operational effectiveness of this joint amphibious capability with a focus on the impact of C4ISR. In this paper, we describe our staged approach to develop a C4ISR focused Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model of amphibious operations via a higher level cause-effect concept map and a BBN. BBNs were selected as they provide a means to both graphically represent the cause and effect relationship between various elements within a scenario as well as to quantify their likely impact on the outcome. As part of this approach, we propose a methodology to link BBNs with discrete information exchange requirements as a means of capturing the operational impacts of C4ISR. Such an approach can potentially provide both the detail on the availability of information products during various tactical phases of an operation as well as the probable operational impact of any deficiencies. Consequently, it is possible that both commanders and capability developers can make more informed decisions and trade-offs under conditions of uncertainty.