Early Stage Probabilistic Software Project Schedule Estimation
Donghwoon Kwon, Robert J. Hammell · 2012
This paper proposes a framework for the objective and accurate estimation of software project schedules in the proposal preparation stage, while taking into account project uncertainty. The project size, resource effort, and the Project Delivery Rate (PDR) value are fundamental to the software project schedule estimation process, and such factors are calculated and determined by function point analysis and the equations and data repository of the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG). Project uncertainty is accounted for so that numerous possibilities may be explored. The framework provides a probabilistic approach by using the @RISK tool which is based on Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) analysis. This approach generates a schedule estimation range; this range is then narrowed by applying the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) which reduces the overall uncertainty and increases the schedule accuracy. WBS Chart Pro is used to create the project Work Breakdown Structure, and Microsoft Project 2010 is used to determine the project critical path.