Automated Forecasting Approach Minimizing Prediction Errors of CPU Availability in Distributed Computing Systems
Nahla Chabbah Sekma, Ahmed Elleuch, Najoua Dridi · International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Applications · 2016
Forecasting CPU availab ility in volunteer computing systems using a single prediction algorith m is insufficient due to the d iversity of the world -wide distributed resources.In this paper, we draw-up the main guidelines to develop an appropriate CPU availability prediction system fo r such computing infrastructures.To reduce solution time and to enhance precision, we use simp le pred iction techniques, precisely vector autoregressive models and a tendency-based technique.We propose a predictor construction process which automatically checks assumptions of vector autoregressive models in time series.Three different past analyses are performed.For a given volunteer resource, the proposed prediction system selects the appropriate predictor using the mult i-state based prediction technique.Then, it uses the selected predictor to forecast CPU availability indicators.We evaluated our predict ion system using real traces of more than 226000 hosts of Seti@ho me.We found that the proposed prediction system improves the prediction accuracy by around 24%.