Methods for Modelling the Confidence in Probabilistic Failure Estimates
C. F. Cain, Pratyush Sen, RW Birmingham · Safety and Reliability · 2001
Formal safety assessment is devoted to the process of estimating the safety of a product and identifying appropriate measures to reduce system risks to an acceptable level. It is important to be able to account for the possibility of vague or scarce probabilistic data in parallel with quantitative safety assessment procedures. This paper describes several practical approaches by which the confidence in a failure probability estimate can be modelled and integrated into any path based probabilistic safety assessment, resulting in top event confidence measures. The modified Boolean representation method (MBRM) is used to demonstrate the procedures.