THE CHANCE OF THE GAPS
William A. Dembski · 2010
1. Probabilistic Resources Statistical reasoning must be capable of eliminating chance when the probability of events gets too small. If not, chance can be invoked to explain anything. Scientists rightly resist invoking the supernatural in scientific explanations for fear of committing a god-of-the-gaps fallacy (the fallacy of using God as a stop-gap for ignorance). Yet without some restriction on the use of chance, scientists are in danger of committing a logically equivalent fallacy—one we may call the “chance-of-the-gaps fallacy.” Chance, like God, can become a stop-gap for ignorance. For instance, in the movie This is Spinal Tap, the lead singer remarks that a former drummer in the band died by spontaneously combusting. Any one of us could this instant spontaneously combust if all the most rapidly moving air molecules in our vicinity suddenly converged on us. Such an event, however, is highly improbable, and we don’t give it a second thought. High improbability by itself, however, is not enough to preclude chance. Indeed, highly improbable events happen all the time. Flip a coin a thousand times, and you’ll