Towards a reconciliation of mental model theory and probabilistic theories of conditionals
Sonja Maria Geiger, Klaus Oberauer · Oxford University Press eBooks · 2010
This chapter proposes a reconciliation of logical and probabilistic processes using theories with a longer psychological pedigree. In a detailed review of the recent empirical literature on conditional reasoning, it observes that studies on the interpretation of the conditional seem to support the probabilistic account, whereas studies on conditional inference seem to support a mental models view. It presents a revised mental model theory that shows that the basic meaning of a conditional is a procedure for constructing a particular mental model and that this procedure can be revised by prior knowledge in a similar way to semantic/pragmatic modulation. Prior knowledge can also provide probabilities as annotations to mental models that can be processed as part of the reasoning process.