A Probabilistic Model of Damage Propagation based on the Markov Process
Young‐Gab Kim, Baek Young-Kyo, In Hoh-Peter, Baik Doo-Kwon · Jeongbo gwahaghoe nonmunji. si'seu'tem mich i'lon · 2006
With rapid development of Internet technology, business management in an organization or an enterprise depends on Internet-based technology for the most part. Furthermore, as dependency and cohesiveness of network in the communication facilities are increasing, cyber attacks have been increased against vulnerable resource in the information system. Hence, to protect private information and computer resource, research for damage propagation is required in this situation. However the proposed traditional models present just mechanism for risk management, or are able to be applied to the specified threats such as virus or worm. Therefore, we propose the probabilistic model of damage propagation based on the Markov process, which can be applied to diverse threats in the information systems. Using the proposed model in this paper, we can predict the occurrence probability and occurrence frequency for each threats in the entire system.