APPLICATION OF BEIYES MODEL IN EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION OF BUILDINGS
Lijun Song · 2001
Probability theory provides mathematical basis to apply uncertain analysis to engineering. The application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings is discussed in the paper.Beiyes model supposes distribution parameter is unknown random variable. It utilizes subjective judgement and objective basis to estimate earthquake damage probability of buildings through Beiyes theoretical formula. Based on earthquake damage of house obtained by earthquake investigation, the model is explained. Contents of the paper involves some concepts: average distributional function of probability, estimation of Beiyes, renew probability of Beiyes, etc. Earthquake damage probability matrix of established based on one and continuous events is applicable to like jungle earthquakes.