FORECAST ON GRAIN PRODUCTION OF SHANDONG PROVINCE
Xiuli Liu · Xitong kexue yu shuxue · 2013
Shandong province is a main grain province in China;the grain production significantly influences its economic and social development,and plays an important role on the food security in China.To forecast Shandong yearly grain product, firstly,we make factor analysis of grain production.Secondly,by using ARMA and OLS methods,we set up Shandong grain production forecast model.Thirdly,on the basis of the proposed models and expert experience,2012 Shandong grain production is forecasted.The result shows that Shandong's grain production will achieve 45.38 million tons in 2012,which will be the 10th successively grain production increasing year.Finally,some relative policy suggestions to make grain production increase are provided.