Study on Decision Support Analysis of Safety Management in Complex Engineering Based on BN
Xianguo Wu · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2011
The current safety management in complex engineering has a bias towards prior management,and relies too much on expert advice.The modeling process of BN in complex engineering is discussed.A method of DSA based on BN for safety management is proposed.And then shield tunnel water leakage in Wuhan river tunnel was taken as an example for case study.Results show that Bayesian networks can integrate practical experience about specific projects from multi-domains experts,and describe the uncertainty of risk factors visually through directed graphs.Using this method,the accident probability can be predicted for prevention by forward reasoning before accident;during the construction,the key risk factors can be identified by worth index in order to strengthen process control;after accident,the most likely combination of accident causes can be discovered by backward reasoning.And therefore real-time decision support can be provided for safety management with the whole process in complex engineering.