Development of Project Outcome Prediction System for an IT Vendor
Tomoyuki Kawamura, Kenichi Takano · 2015
Researchers have found that approximately 70% of information systems development projects in Japan have failed, thus increasing the demand for solutions that will raise expected project success rates. It is said that to improve success rates, it is essential that risk management should be conducted at an early stage. Although risk management is an important process that a project focuses on, it is difficult to mitigate the influence of all the risks through only the project. Therefore, it is noted that support should be provided by the organization to which the projects belong. The study aims to identify projects that an organization should support preferentially by predicting a project outcome that utilizes the assessment results of the project risks at an early stage. The risks of 88 projects of a Japanese IT vendor were assessed using a risk assessment sheet, and a project outcome prediction model was developed by utilizing the results of the assessment. As a consequence, a model with 73.9% predictive accuracy was obtained. It is thought that the system, including the risk assessment sheet and the project outcome prediction model, will contribute to identify projects that an organization should support preferentially.