Short-Term Climate Prediction Model of Neural Network Based on Genetic Algorithms
Long Mei Jin, WU Jiang-sheng, Kaiping Lin, Chen Bing-lian · Gaoyuan qixiang · 2005
To set up the short-term climate prediction model in this paper,both the neural network and connection weights of genetic algorithm are optimized,the best individual in evolution process is reserved. Thus it can overcome the defects of unstability of neutral network initial weight and falling easily into local solution.As the applied example of a short-time climate forecast model,April mean precipitation in Guangxi area is taken as the predictand,the antecedent montly mean 500 hPa potential field and sea surface temperature filed in some high correlation areas are taken as the pedictors.Predictive performance between the new model and linear regression model for same predictors is discussed based on the independent samples.Results show that the model is superior in prediction accuracy and stability compared with the traditional method.