Time-series Analysis of Regional Forest Fire
Liu Fa-lin · Zhongnan Linye Keji Daxue xuebao · 2008
A time series including victimized rate,incidence rate,control rate and the probability of solar-term forest fire was constructed based on 20 years' forest-fire data in Guangzhou City.A discriminate forecast of the future status of its forest-fire hazards was made according to a hazard analysis of the time-series features conducted by means of Discrete Orthogonal Wavelets,MannKendall,Box-Jenkins,and Markov Chain coupling with Cluster Analysis.The results show that this time series has its own intervals for stability and fluctuation;that the control rate has a leap point from one state to another in 1986;that the next two years will see the state of fire occurrence remain stable and the fire situation in the same level as in the years of 1990～1998 and 2001～2006;and that forest-fire probability is very high on the solar-terms of Spring Beginning and Great Snow and still has an increasing tendency around Gregorian and Lunar New Year.