A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON NATURAL DISASTERS ALONG SOUTH CHINA COAST DURING MING DYNASTY II CHAOTIC CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS
Hou‐De Zhou · Redai haiyang · 2000
An analysis on chaotic characteristics of the time series of natural disasters that happened every year in the coastal region of South China during Ming Dynasty from 1368 to 1644 A D.is conducted.It is found that for every embedded dimension m ,the time series shows fractal characteristics.The correlation fractal dimension increases with m at first and then,when m reaches the value of 10,becomes stable around the value of 2 8.These indicate that the dynamic system controlling the numbers of natural disasters that happened every year in the coastal region of South China during Ming Dynasty is of chaotic characteristics.To establish the system,at least 3 and at most 10 uncorrelated variables are needed.The Kolmogorov entropy K of this chaotic system is also calculated based on G P method.It is found that when embedded dimension m reaches 7, K tends to stabilize around the value of 0 38.This suggests that for the time series of the numbers of natural disasters,the average predictable time period is 2 6 years.