Combination forecasting based on model availability for district network bus loads and its system implementation
Xiaoli Sun · 2014
The bus load forecasts of district network are the basis for the operation mode determination and security check,as well as the vital part of smart grid construction. The combination forecasting is an effective solution to the dispersivity and uncertainty of bus loads and the selection of forecast model and the determination of combination strategy are its essentials. According to the characteristics of district network bus loads,a concept of forecast model availability is introduced. A method of combination model set determination based on the correlation degree and a method of model availability grey forecasting are proposed. The normalized coefficient of combination model availability is used to build the combination forecast model and a forecasting system of district network bus loads is developed on C# platform. Its application in a district network verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.